Visible satellite image of tropical storm Hermine.
Infrared image of Hermine
Tropical storm Hermine is forecast to make its way through a portion of the southern plains from Monday-Thursday. The storm currently has a max winds at 60mph and is moving at about 15mph. While all the models show the storm breaking apart after it hits land, Hermine will still bring a substantial amount of tropical moisture. Thunderstorms are forecast from Tuesday night-Thursday morning for our area. Should be interesting to see what develops. Severe weather doesn't seem very likely right now due to the lack of CAPE on all the model runs. I should be off on Wednesday this week and I will try to do some chasing. Right now it looks like the largest threat is going to be flooding.
NWS Graphicast depicting Hermine's path. Note how it should be right over us Wednesday afternoon.
The SPC is not saying much for severe weather at this time. Inconsistencies in the model runs make it difficult to predict the severe potential. The have issued a Day 3 "See Text" which usually indicates a less than 5% probability of severe weather.
We are already getting hammered with rain here in the Metroplex. Actually had a couple of Tornado Warnings, too, but they were both pretty brief, which is typical of tropical systems. I was hoping for a chance to do some lightning photography, but it seems that lightning is not occurring much, if at all. Hopefully, you will have better luck, as the center should be tracking very near Wichita Falls, if not directly over.
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